- BEAR Alpha tier list ranks event skins by how likely they are to return.
- Cinco de Mayo and anniversary skins like Cinco Sam and Baldi have near-guaranteed returns.
- Confirmed never returning: Undead Coming, Witches Brew, The Monster, and Aroyo.
- Zob and Yob are practically confirmed for the 7th anniversary update.
- Rarity tip: Itto is not even top 10 rarest; several 2023 quest skins are rarer.
Tier List Overview: How Skin Returns Work
This BEAR Alpha tier list sorts every event skin into return-likelihood tiers, from practically confirmed to never coming back. Rankings are based on developer patterns, past event rotations, and official statements through late 2026.
Video Highlights:
- Every event skin ranked by return likelihood
- Christmas 2019 Arctic Valley skins rated "may return"
- Cinco de Mayo tradition makes those skins a 99% return
- Four skins officially confirmed never to return
| Tier | Meaning | Example Skins |
|---|---|---|
| S | 99% chance / confirmed | Cinco Sam, Pinata, Baldi, Team Derp, Mole Bear |
| A | Good chance | Santa's Winter Stronghold set, Crustification, Rob |
| B | May return | Arctic Valley set, Halloween shop skins, Sam |
| C | Unlikely | Egg Lord, Bear Swagger, treasure hunt skins |
| D | Almost certainly won't | Green Viking, anniversary skins, 6air, Atrocity |
| F | Confirmed never | Undead Coming, Witches Brew, The Monster, Aroyo |
The never-return status for the Halloween 2023 skins came from a statement by a former developer (Macabre Roses / Grus Zero). Since she is no longer on the team, this status could theoretically change, but treat it as final for now.
Holiday Event Skins: Christmas and Halloween
Holiday skins dominate the mid tiers. Most have returned at least once, which usually means another return is possible.
Christmas Skins
- Arctic Valley set: may return, developers could rotate it back
- Santa's Winter Stronghold: good chance, especially after the Frozen Santa remake
- Shop skins (Randy etc.): good chance if the currency returns
Halloween Skins
- Pumpkin, Psycho, Robot, Ghost Bear, Inky: may return after three prior returns
- Creepy Pasta, Scarecrow, Werebear, Boo: good chance
- Mummy: lower odds, oddly excluded from the 2025 return
Halloween 2025
- Masks Ting, Huge Foot, The Bear: nearly confirmed if Halloween continues
- Headless Horse Bear, Trick orers: good chance
- Badge skins: unlikely, too much work to reimplement
| Skin | Tier | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Blizzard / Gingerbread / Secret Santa | B | Left out last time, odd omission |
| Sugar Cookie, Grunch, Scrs, Snowob | C | No signs of a return |
| Unrefined | A | Not Halloween-locked, could return anytime |
| Inky | B+ | Returned multiple times already |
| Ghost Bear (2025) | D | Very random quest, unlikely |
If a Halloween event runs in 2026, prioritize Mummy and the badge skins first. The frequently returning classics (Pumpkin, Psycho) will almost certainly come back again, but the exclusions may not.
Cinco de Mayo, July 4th, and Anniversary Skins
Annual traditions produce the safest picks on the entire list. Cinco de Mayo has run every single year since 2020, making those skins the closest thing to a guaranteed return in BEAR Alpha.
| Skin | Event | Return Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Cinco Sam | Cinco de Mayo | 99% |
| Pinata, Jalapeno, Sinkob | Cinco de Mayo | 99% |
| Folklorico | Cinco de Mayo | B (skipped in 2025) |
| Ma Sparkler, Uncle Sam | July 4th | 99% |
| Mole Bear | MAB event | 99%, tied to a puzzle piece |
| Baldi, Overcompensator | Anniversary | Near tradition |
| Team Derp | Anniversary | Very likely |
| 1st-5th Anniversary | Anniversary | Almost certainly won't |
| 6air | 6th Anniversary | Won't return (name-locked) |
Watch Cinco de Mayo (May 5)
Log in during the event window; Cinco Sam and Pinata historically return without fail every year.
Stack Quidz for Anniversary
Baldi always returns but is expensive. Save currency well before the anniversary update lands.
Grab the 7th Anniversary Bob
One of Zob or Yob is expected to return, likely Yob given Zob's unpopularity.
Check July 4th
Ma Sparkler and Uncle Sam have become tradition returns alongside the Cinco de Mayo set.
Team Derp is a safer bet than Celebration because Team Derp has returned in every anniversary event while Celebration does not always come back.
Rare Quest and Weekly Update Skins
The weekly update era produced dozens of skins with wildly different return odds. Rarity does not always match popularity, and several obscure quest skins are now rarer than famous ones like Itto.
| Skin | Tier | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Sam | B | Elusive; took 5 years for one return |
| Itto | B | Not top 10 rarest; needs Anamoya remake |
| Atrocity | D | Confirmed never returning despite Cheese Factory buttons |
| Bear Swagger | C | Poorly advertised, only Discord players knew |
| Raw Bear, Obby, Teapot of Doom | D | Classic Roblox themed, unlikely |
| Asteroid, Hyperspace, Rover, Saucer | C | Space set, low odds |
| Musical | B | Not medieval-locked, could return anytime |
| Captain Sam | D | Depends on treasure hunt content |
Contrary to community belief, Itto does not crack the top 10 rarest skins. Several Halloween 2023 quest skins and the treasure hunt badge skins are considerably rarer because their content never reruns.
Skin Collector Priorities for 2026:
- Grab Mummy if Halloween 2026 includes it
- Farm Quidz before the 7th anniversary update
- Pick up Cinco Sam during Cinco de Mayo
- Watch for Zob or Yob in the anniversary event
- Accept that Undead Coming and Witches Brew are gone
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Which skins in this BEAR Alpha tier list are guaranteed to return?
Nothing is truly guaranteed, but Cinco de Mayo skins (Cinco Sam, Pinata), Baldi, Team Derp, Ma Sparkler, Uncle Sam, and Mole Bear sit at roughly 99% odds based on consistent annual traditions.
Q: Which BEAR Alpha skins will never return?
Four skins are confirmed never to return: Undead Coming, Witches Brew, The Monster, and Aroyo. If you do not own them, you likely never will.
Q: Will the Arctic Valley Christmas skins come back?
Possibly. They may return if the developers rotate Arctic Valley back in or make Blizzard, Gingerbread, and Secret Santa private-server exclusive, but the devs may prefer a fresh Christmas event instead.
Q: Is Zob or Yob returning for the 7th anniversary?
One of the two is expected to return in the 7th anniversary update. Yob is the safer bet because Zob is a notably unpopular skin in the community.